by Aaron Deslatte, Orlando Sentinel
A majority of voters, close to the 60 percent needed for passage, favor writing a same-sex-marriage ban into the Florida Constitution, according to a new Orlando Sentinel poll.
But the state’s electorate appears far more skeptical of a ballot measure that would eliminate more than $8 billion in school property taxes and require the Legislature to pay for it, most likely with higher sales taxes.
The survey, released Thursday, found that 57 percent of voters supported Amendment 2, which would define marriage as “the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife.” Just over one-third of voters opposed it.
A 60 percent majority is required to amend the constitution. The 57 percent total is within the poll’s margin of error of 4 percentage points, meaning the amendment might pass if the vote were held today.
The initiative to put the amendment on the November ballot was launched in 2006 by the Orlando-based Florida4marriage group, with funding by Focus on the Family and other religious organizations.
“It shows this is going to be an extremely close race,” said John Stemberger, founder of the Florida4Marriage group. “Our people are very motivated. Our supporters understand the importance of the issue.”
A group called Florida Red and Blue has raised more than $2 million to fight the amendment. It is paying for commercials on CNN and MSNBC during this week’s Democratic National Convention that say the amendment would deny rights to, among others, seniors who live together but choose not to marry for tax or other reasons.
“This is a dead-heat race. And we haven’t started talking to people about how bad this is,” said Derek Newton, the Miami-based campaign manager for the group.
Meanwhile, 39 percent of voters supported Amendment 5, which would abolish most school property taxes — about 25 percent of the average homeowner’s or business owner’s tax bill. The Legislature would have to make up the lost education money through higher sales taxes, repealing sales-tax exemptions, budget cuts or economic growth.
Thirty-three percent were opposed, while 28 percent said they were undecided about the plan, which was drafted this year by the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission.
Voters might not get to make the final call.
A Leon County circuit judge ruled this month that the amendment was misleading because it wouldn’t actually require lawmakers to hold school funding “harmless” after 2011 — and he removed it from the Nov. 4 ballot. The Florida Supreme Court is scheduled to hear an appeal next week.
“It’s fairly long. It’s fairly confusing, and people aren’t really sure what it does. Then there’s the question of whether it ever makes the ballot,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which surveyed 625 registered voters Monday and Tuesday.
Given the range of amendment opponents — including business groups, certified public accountants, school districts, teachers and some lawmakers — Coker called its passage “a long shot.” Gov. Charlie Crist has said he will campaign for the amendment if it makes the ballot.
The poll also showed the governor has solid support among voters, with a 57 percent approval rate, although that is down from a November survey. Of Republicans, 71 percent said he was doing an “excellent” or “good” job, compared with 47 percent of Democrats. Only 13 percent said he is doing poorly.
Aaron Deslatte can be reached at adeslatte@orlandosentinel.com or 850-222-5564.